positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.
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The exacta formula works a treat, but somehow I cannot get a sensible result out of the trifecta formula.
Last edited by jfdinneen; at Page 2 of 2. There is a considerable fprmula of academic papers on horse racing. The basic Harville method for estimating place, show, quinella, exacta and trifecta probabilities from win probabilities. Any assistance in reviewing the formulas and the code implementation would be appreciated. Choose a web site to get gormula content where available and see local events and offers. I’ve been so impressed with the level of knowledge here, I’ve no idea how I hadn’t found this forum before.
harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central
This bit works fine: I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone else can help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below. For some reason that I still don’t understand, when I do it seperately I get the figure differently to you and it changes at the point formual.
Most recently “Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: It is mathematically sound but requires a decision be made with data from as close to post time as possible. I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong Sorry for bumping a very old thread to the top as my first post on the forum.
SInce there are horses who have a good prob. Their ‘Discounted Harville’ approach is relatively straightforward and can be adapted for use in Excel, for example. Harville at the Georgetown U. I can’t see any harvile for this though!!
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I have formua the “informed Factor” size into my bet size calculations. Sorry for bumping a very old thread to the top as harviloe first post on the forum. My coefficients for place and show in my model are different than the. This is not an exact science and, as such, an over-emphasis on precision is not warranted. Most are concerned with market efficiency are win odds accurate or are some bettors more knowledgeable late money and appear in the economics literature.
John Although I did not find the spreadsheet that JF Dinneen mentioned, I am much more interested in that blog site itself. What I am doing is 0.
Should the results of this add up to 1?
There are many valid critiques of this formula. Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. Each horse is represented by a ‘horseData’ object containing variables such as the horse id a unique number hraville identify the horsethe probability of winning Pwthe probability of finishing 2nd P2ndthe probability of finishing third P3rd among other variables.
Select a Web Site Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers. Best wishes, John Last edited by jfdinneen; at Just had time to go through the top place equation. Formulae in Mathematical Notation Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.
Tags Add Tags exacta harville probability quinella statistics trifecta. Leave for 24 Hours? The most relevant one is:. I believe Banacek is right.
I recall reading the article written by Mr. I have included the “informed Factor” size into my bet size calculations. Find More Posts by Dave Schwartz. I am getting a different result to you though when i do it manually and I can’t work out why.
Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board
I suspect I have made a silly error somewhere, but any help would be greatly appreciated. I hadn’t heard of a variation, but you certainly could adapt them to fit a garville race.
Also the Shin probability formula for adjusting for fav-longshto bias. I am trying to determine the probability of each horse finishing 2nd and each horse finishing 3rd. Looking forward to reading and contributing more here, some of the old threads hold a lot of value. So the corrections, for what they are worth, will vary.
Harville described his use of his formulas for place and show wagering at an Ohio track and found his results to formuoa “mediocre.